Hormuz Stalemate Keeps Brent Near $86 With a $100 Risk Case in the Forecasts
Global oil inventories fell by an average 4.2m barrels a day in the second quarter
Disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz has pulled enough oil out of global inventories to keep crude prices elevated into the fourth quarter, with two separate forecasts now built around a stalemate that neither side looks close to breaking.
The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average around $85 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026, $11 higher than its previous estimate. It calculates that global oil inventories declined by an average of 4.2m barrels a day across the April to June quarter, and expects a further drawdown averaging 3.8m barrels a day in the current quarter.
That agency sees prices easing once traffic through the strait gradually recovers and shut-in production starts to return. It forecasts Brent at $78 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. "As global inventories begin to rebuild, oil prices are expected to decline gradually, with Brent forecast to average $69/bbl in 2027," its note said.
The price path since the conflict began has been violent. Brent rose from around $70 a barrel to a high above $120 before cooling back to pre-war levels as tensions between Washington and Tehran appeared to ease. The stalemate over the strait has since driven it back to $86.
Rabobank takes the more bullish view of the two. It has raised its Brent forecast to $90 a barrel for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, from earlier estimates of around $88 and $86. Its 2027 forecast has been lifted to $86 a barrel and its 2028 estimate to $79.
Analysts Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit describe August as having brought a new equilibrium of economic sanctions and low-scale conflict between the United States and Iran, with little progress towards resolving the wider geopolitical dispute. They see a short-term agreement to reopen the strait to commercial shipping as unlikely, given the limited common ground between the two governments.
The bank expects Brent to stay volatile, with $70 to $75 a barrel acting as the lower support zone and $95 to $100 forming the upper end of the range. "However, a renewed disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandab strait could push prices above $100/bbl," it said.
For owners, the forecasts matter less as a price call than as a statement about volumes. Both rest on the pace at which disrupted production and flows are restored, which is the same variable that governs oil tanker employment on the routes out of the Gulf. Cargo volumes through Hormuz were already down more than 90% after six months of conflict, and nothing in either forecast assumes a rapid return.
