Russian Urals Crude Tops Brent in India for First Time Since May
October cargoes trade at a premium as Indian and Chinese refiners compete for tighter volumes.
October-delivery Urals cargoes into India are now being offered at up to $1 a barrel above Dated Brent — the first time the Russian grade has priced above the benchmark there since May.
September-arrival cargoes remain priced at discounts of $1 to $2 a barrel, meaning the reversal is concentrated in the forward month rather than across the board. Behind the shift is a straightforward supply squeeze. Drone strikes in southern Russia and around the Black Sea have cut into loadings from Novorossiysk, and separate worries over Middle Eastern barrels moving through the Strait of Hormuz have added to it — together nudging Indian buyers to bid harder for the Russian cargoes still on offer, with Chinese refiners competing for the same tightening pool.
Chinese demand has strengthened in parallel, including for ESPO Blend, adding further competition for supplies that have traditionally gone to India. The price recovery has moved quickly. Urals cargoes that arrived in India in August had traded at discounts of more than $10 a barrel in early July. By the end of July, discounts for late-August and early-September deliveries had narrowed to $1-$2, and the average discount for deliveries to India's west coast stood at $2.23 a barrel in the first half of August.
Volumes have moved in the opposite direction of price. India's Russian crude imports are estimated at 1.87 million barrels a day in August, down from 2.79 million bpd in July, while China's seaborne Russian crude imports are estimated at 1.25 million bpd. India and China remain the two main buyers of Russian seaborne crude, and the narrowing discount — now flipping to a premium for October cargoes — reflects a market where reduced Russian export availability is starting to outweigh the sanctions-driven discount that has defined the trade since 2022.
