DNV Urges Owners to Build Fleets That Survive the Wrong Fuel Call
Low-GHG fuel demand could range from 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050 depending on regulation
Shipping companies need to stop betting on a single decarbonisation pathway and instead build strategies capable of surviving radically different regulatory, fuel and technology outcomes, according to DNV's latest Maritime Forecast to 2050.
The tenth edition of the classification society's annual forecast puts uncertainty at the centre of shipping's energy transition, with the fate of the International Maritime Organization's global carbon regulations still unresolved and low-emission fuel markets yet to develop sufficiently strong commercial foundations.
The report sets out four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework in its current form through to outright rejection and a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock. Each pathway shapes fuel uptake and energy efficiency deployment differently.
The resulting spread in fuel demand is wide enough to make single-fuel commitments hazardous. Shipping demand for low-GHG fuels could range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030, and from 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes and on the availability of those fuels in a competitive global market.
That range is the practical problem for owners ordering ships now. A vessel contracted today will trade into the 2050s, and the fuel it is designed around must be available, affordable and compliant across scenarios that differ by a factor of five in projected demand.
DNV's response is to stress flexibility rather than selection. With no single fuel or technology pathway yet providing a clear answer, the society argues for maintaining momentum, accelerating energy-efficiency measures and preserving optionality across fuels and technologies while regulatory and fuel markets continue to evolve.
Energy efficiency occupies a particular place in that argument because it pays across every scenario. Measures that cut consumption reduce exposure to fuel price and to compliance cost regardless of which fuel eventually dominates, making them the one category of investment that does not depend on guessing the regulatory outcome correctly.
The IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee is due to reconvene in October.
