Maersk Drops Its Fleet Cap as Capacity Passes 4.7m TEU

Maersk is abandoning the capacity ceiling that has defined its container strategy for the decade. Under chief executive Vincent Clerc, the Danish group intends to revive fleet expansion, stepping away from a policy that held operated capacity within a 4.0 to 4.4 million teu band and treated newbuildings mainly as replacements for ageing tonnage.

The cap has in practice already been breached. Maersk's operated fleet has passed 4.7 million teu, well above the stated upper limit, while CMA CGM has been closing the distance from third place with a substantially larger orderbook behind it.

The company signalled the change with its second-quarter results, stating that given the existing fleet has reached capacity limits, it will ensure it possesses the necessary capacity to support business growth. Linerlytica reads that as the prelude to a new round of orders. Since 2018 Maersk's annualised fleet growth has run at 2 percent, against as much as 11.7 percent for its main competitors, and eight years of restraint have left it needing capacity at a moment when global container ship order backlogs are at an all-time high.

Not everyone expects a flurry of contracts. Philip Damas, managing director at Drewry, sees two objectives rather than one: replacing older ships to meet tightening environmental requirements, and adding vessel types suited to fast-growing regional trades. Maersk operates 46 ships of 15,000 teu or more but holds only seven orders for vessels of 6,000 teu or less, a gap that points to where any ordering is likely to land.

Damas also argues the earlier caution was defensible. Maersk did not over-order in the way most large carriers did, which leaves it less exposed to overcapacity between late 2027 and 2029. Ordering now would mean paying higher newbuild prices, and he suggests the company might instead wait for the next downturn and buy large ships cheaply from owners caught long.

Vespucci Maritime makes a similar point from another angle, noting that dropping the cap does not automatically imply a wave of newbuildings and could equally signal a more aggressive chartering strategy. Alphaliner analyst Jan Tiedemann observes that Maersk has recently been very active in the charter market, and reads that as confirmation the carrier misjudged the newbuild cycle, ordering large ships too late and in insufficient numbers, leaving it needing another 10 to 20 or more vessels.

Tiedemann expects Maersk may order large LNG dual-fuel container ships later this year, with delivery provisionally scheduled between 2029 and 2031.