Gulf Crude Exports Pass 10m Barrels a Day on Facilitated Hormuz Transits

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at roughly 20% of its pre-conflict norm, but the flow has been steady enough to lift Gulf crude exports back above 10m barrels a day for the first time in about two months. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations recorded 108 outbound and 102 inbound transits over the latest seven-day period, a figure that combines AIS-derived movements with United States-reported facilitated passages.

The split between those two sources is the striking part. US-stated facilitated transits on the southern route averaged about 20 vessels a day over the week, against six AIS-derived transits a day, a ratio of roughly three to one. Broken down over the same seven days, UKMTO counted 22 AIS-derived outbound transits and 23 inbound, against 86 US-stated facilitated outbound passages and 79 inbound. Ships still transmitting AIS have mostly used the northern route through Iranian territorial waters, while facilitated traffic has moved along the southern side. UKMTO has also said it is aware of UAE-facilitated vessels making the passage with AIS switched off, movements it cannot independently verify.

Combined crude exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman have averaged more than 10m barrels a day over the past seven complete days, on TankerTrackers.com figures that include shipments from the Gulf of Oman which do not need to pass through the strait at all. It is the first time in roughly two months that producers behind the US blockade line have cleared that level, and the divide in Gulf flows is widening: non-Iranian producers are finding ways through while Iranian exports remain shut out.

The passage is not becoming safer. UKMTO has identified the southern Omani route as the highest-risk corridor, accounting for 19 of the 32 projectile strike incidents reported since 6 July, and JMIC continues to assess the threat level in the strait as SEVERE.

Freight has repriced accordingly. The rate for a VLCC loading in the Gulf of Oman for China reached about Worldscale 450 this week, roughly $11.50 a barrel and the highest since the assessment was launched earlier this year. VLCC rates on the West Africa to Asia route also set records. "Renewed attacks between the U.S. Navy and Iran continue to push freight rates around the Gulf to new highs," said Vortexa analyst Ioannis Papadimitriou, who added that the risk of Iranian retaliation is thinning the pool of tankers willing to work the region.

Diplomacy is moving in parallel. Oman has sought to bring foreign ministers from the six Gulf Cooperation Council states together with Iran at Salalah, where Tehran has spent several weeks discussing a framework for managing traffic through the strait. Such an arrangement would likely involve fees for transiting vessels, which the United States and the Gulf states oppose. Brent fell more than 3% on Friday to about $104 a barrel but was still heading for its largest weekly gain since July.

This story is part of the Maritime Briefing of 15 September 2026.