Container schedule reliability falls to 27% as Red Sea capacity doubles in six weeks
Far East-Europe on-time performance dropped to 4% in September while Bab-el-Mandeb capacity climbed back to 448,273 teu a week
Container shipping schedule reliability deteriorated for a fourth consecutive month in September, with the worldwide on-time rate falling to 27%, two percentage points below August, according to figures published by Xeneta in October. Average vessel delays stretched to six days, 2.4 days longer than in the early second quarter. The same data show capacity returning to the Red Sea far faster than the network is recovering its punctuality.
The pressure was heaviest on Asia-Europe. On-time performance on Far East-Europe services collapsed to 4% in September, with average delays of 9.9 days, the worst result since September 2021. Far East-North America lanes held at 20% on time, but their average delay widened to 6.9 days.
Why is reliability still falling?
Xeneta attributes the decline to several factors arriving together. Successive typhoons across Asia between July and early September disrupted port rotations and vessel sequencing, fuel costs squeezed operational buffers, and peak-season demand added strain. The typhoons acted as a trigger rather than a root cause: years of high-utilisation operation have left the liner network with little resilience, so a delay at one port carries through later calls, transhipment connections and future voyages.
The Gemini network of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, launched partly on a reliability promise, saw its on-time rate fall from 70% in June to 34% by late September. In Singapore, the main transhipment hub, the average number of vessels at anchor each day rose from about 12 to 22, and waiting times lengthened from 1.9 to 3.1 days, a sign that congestion starting in Chinese ports is spreading through the wider network.
How much capacity is back in the Red Sea?
As of 5 October, planned weekly container capacity transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in at least one direction reached 448,273 teu, double the figure recorded on 27 August. That is still only 48% of the roughly 930,679 teu a week that used the route in August 2023, before the Red Sea crisis began in earnest. Xeneta senior shipping analyst Emily Stausboll noted that part of the tonnage diverted around the Cape of Good Hope is gradually re-entering the network, while the reasons carriers have accelerated their return in the past six weeks remain for the lines themselves to explain.
Port congestion and network delays may absorb part of the released capacity in the near term. On Asia-Europe, a return to Suez routing would shorten voyages and free tonnage that the Cape diversion tied up, which could weigh on rates over the medium term and feed into 2027 contract negotiations.
What are carriers doing with rates?
Carriers are cancelling sailings to manage supply. In one October week, 58,200 teu of planned capacity on Far East-US West Coast services and 35,500 teu on Far East-US East Coast services were withdrawn. Blank sailings ran at about 6% on Far East-Europe and 8% on Far East-North America in September, and Xeneta expects ratios of up to 17% and 13% respectively in October.
As of 16 October, the Far East-US West Coast spot rate stood at $8,296 per feu, down 0.2% week on week, and the Far East-US East Coast rate at $11,495 per feu, down 0.1%. Far East-North Europe rose 2.5% to $3,568 per feu and Far East-Mediterranean 3.2% to $4,165 per feu. China-US West Coast spot rates in early October, at $7,717 per feu, were more than four times the $1,778 recorded in September 2025, while long-term contract rates on that lane climbed 26% to $3,649 per feu.
This story is part of the Maritime Briefing of 29 October 2026.
