More Than 200 Chinese Vessels Mass Near Philippine-Held Shoal
Count at Mischief Reef rose from under 40 in mid-May to 228 by early July
More than 200 Chinese vessels have gathered around Mischief Reef in the disputed South China Sea, raising concerns that Beijing may be preparing to increase pressure on, or eventually seize, the nearby Second Thomas Shoal, which is controlled by the Philippines.
Private security analysis group DEEP DIVE recorded a sharp rise in the number of Chinese vessels anchored at Mischief Reef in the eastern Spratly Islands, from fewer than 40 in mid-May to 80 on 27 May. The number exceeded 150 in early June and reached 228 on 3 July. Mischief Reef lies roughly 25 miles west of Second Thomas Shoal.
The concentration has raised concerns that the vessels could be used to disrupt Philippine military resupply operations to the shoal, or as preparation for an attempt to seize it. The precedent is Mischief Reef itself, where China established control before constructing an artificial island and military facilities. A comparable move could place Second Thomas Shoal outside Philippine control and turn it into another Chinese military outpost.
Mischief Reef lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, but China began establishing a presence there in the mid-1990s and later took effective control. Extensive land reclamation and construction followed during the 2010s, and the artificial island now contains a runway of roughly 1.9 miles, radar installations and other facilities, serving as one of China's principal military outposts in the South China Sea.
The formation of the vessels is what analysts have focused on. Bonji Ohara, representative director of DEEP DIVE and a former Japanese defence attache in China, and visiting fellow Miyabi Ishihara noted that more than 20 vessels were anchored while tied together in raft-like formations, a configuration inconsistent with normal fishing operations. Rafting at anchorage in that pattern is characteristic of coordinated station-keeping rather than independent commercial activity, and has fed assessments that China is using its maritime militia to extend effective control in disputed waters.
The development has heightened military tensions in a sea area that carries a substantial share of global container and energy traffic, and where commercial masters have already had to contend with GPS interference and the presence of large numbers of unlit vessels at anchor.
