Black Sea Attacks Drive Global Grain Shipments Down Eight Percent
Black Sea grain exports fell 26 percent year on year as both sides struck ships and terminals
Global grain shipments fell 8 percent year on year over the five weeks to week 33, driven by a 26 percent drop in grain exports from the Black Sea as Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ships and port infrastructure intensified.
"Over the last five weeks global grain shipments have fallen 8% y/y, fuelled by a 26% y/y drop in grain exports from the Black Sea," said Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO. A Ukrainian proposal to halt attacks on shipping in the Black Sea has been rejected by Russia, reducing hopes of a near-term recovery. Weaker maize shipments from Brazil, caused by a delayed harvest, have also weighed on global volumes.
Attacks escalated on 6 July 2026 when Ukraine launched Operation MoLoChKa. The strikes initially targeted Russian-linked ships in the Sea of Azov before expanding into the Black Sea, where both vessels and port infrastructure have been hit. Russia in turn intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports and merchant ships, prompting many shipowners to suspend calls at Ukrainian ports.
Russia claimed to have struck as many as five more vessels in the two days to 26 August, saying it hit three cargo ships and one tanker at the port of Pivdennyi along with port infrastructure, and a further cargo ship near Odesa. Ukraine reported striking well over 100 vessels last month, mostly smaller tankers moving fuel to Crimea.
The commercial effect is concentrated in food trades. "While Black Sea ports account for only 3% of global dry bulk seaborne exports, the region plays a larger role in grain trade and account for roughly 14% of global seaborne grain volumes," Gouveia said. Russia and Ukraine are among the world's largest exporters of wheat and maize, supplying buyers in Africa, the Middle East, Europe and Asia.
Both countries are seeking alternative routes. Russia has begun redirecting cargoes overland and towards ports in the Caspian Sea, the Baltic and the Far East, though railway links eastwards already face bottlenecks from coal traffic. Ukraine has looked to its Danube ports and to Romanian ports, but those corridors carry significant capacity constraints and cannot replace Black Sea volumes.
Storage is becoming the binding problem. Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food recently estimated the country could face a storage deficit of 11m tonnes by November, equivalent to 13 percent of this year's expected grain and oilseed harvest. Wheat, barley and rapeseed harvesting is still under way, while maize, sunflower seed and soya bean harvesting is due to begin in the coming weeks.
Ukrainian officials maintain the Black Sea ports remain open and functioning. The ports around Odesa typically account for up to 90 percent of the country's exports.
